I bought a iPhone 4s 16g black a couple of weeks ago. As you know,there is only one button on iPhone. Therefore,I need to use the HOME button frequently. I am afraid that it won't last long. The problem consists in the applications which don't have 'exit' option.
mine has lasted ever since 2008 when I bough my old iPhone (I have since upgraded to a 4S but use the old one on a regular basis for games). I don't think anyone could predict, but based on the fact that it is the most important button on an iPhone, Apple must have made it quite durable and it will function long after your iPhone battery expired making your iPhone useless =)
I didn't know there is only ONE button. The power/sleep, the volume up, and the volume down... they don't count as buttons? Seriously though, you should not worry about wearing out the home button as much as you should worry about KEEPING IT CLEAN. In particular, do not use the phone when you have food, grease, cosmetic fluids, glue, etc. on your finger. Do not let excessive dust, mud, sand accumulate on the phone. In my experience I have plenty of cases of people letting that button get dirty, then stuck in such a way that it cannot be pressed and released reliably. (The button itself was always far from being worn out.)