batori- It's like saying will I get Alzheimer's or will I live to be a hundred ? ect. I have used Philips 8X DVD-R media which is CMC some of my backups are 6 month to a year or more old and i have'nt had any problems yet ! But I may just be lucky ! I would say that if your have'nt had any problems don't worry ! the only way you can be sure your movie will play in a year or more is to try it after that long ! I have'nt be at this as long as many of the esteemed AFTERDAWN.COM membersip but I've done my share and learned along the way! I would suggest if you worried about longevity - put all your backups on Verbatim or Taiyo Yuden media ! or you could use mediacal grade media which is much more expensive but made especcially to be stable longterm ! But I think that would be overkill ! AS long as you stay away from the off the wall stuff you should be okay !Again I hope my limmited knowledge has helped ! peace my friend & happy burning!