and round #1 goes to HD-DVD...

Without any further ado, here are the reasons HD DVD and Blu-ray Disc will never turn into the dominant formats for digital media viewing:

1. Nobody likes false starts
With the debut of HD DVD at an underwhelming 720p/1080i, coupled with a buggy interface and a transport that makes boiling water seem like a speedy event, the entrance of high definition DVD into the mainstream came out of the starting gate lame and hobbled. For Toshiba to release a player that didn’t support true HD at 1080p (even though the software does), and with no lossless audio format to accompany the video track, the high definition wave was more of a ripple. Add to this the delay of HDMI 1.3, lack of market penetration and supply, and a dearth amount of software titles and you have a very unimpressive product launch.

2. Format Wars Don’t Sell Players
The only reason Sony’s Playstation, Microsoft’s Xbox and the Nintendo GameCube can sell so well simultaneously is because of the prevalence of excellent software titles. People want to buy the hardware just so they can play the software. This is not a format war – it is choice, just like Chevy and Ford (and just like the gaming systems, some people have one of each). The high definition DVD formats, however are really just the same source material packaged in two different wrappers- not to provide choice, mind you, but because the two camps simply are too greedy to combine forces, and not innovative enough to drive two truly separate products successfully. Take careful note – a format war is NOT competition, it is a hindrance and the bane of high definition DVDs.

3. HD DVD and Blu-ray are NOT Quantum Leaps in Technology
Consumers came over in droves when CDs were released back in 1982. The new format offered not only a new digital media, but also a way to instantly access tracks across an entire “album”. Convenience, not technology, drove this format to almost instant consumer adoption. Fast forward a bit to 1997 when the first DVD player was released. Again, convenience, not technology, drove people to the market en masse. Unlike VHS tapes, the new DVD format was smaller, easily navigated and would not wear down over time like existing tape-based formats. Heck, the concept of a shiny plastic disc was new – and quite frankly, it was the coolest thing to hit the technological shelf since solid state technology. In comparison, the high definition DVD formats, save the color of the business side of the disc, look exactly the same… and consumer confusion will surely follow.

What do the new high definition DVD formats offer consumers over DVD? Technology and more storage. Is this enough? Not on your life. Consumers, most of whom rarely know how to properly configure their players or home theater systems, are perfectly content with their current DVD players (and indeed some have just jumped on board to DVD in the last several years). While the potential for more extras and alternate endings exists due to increased storage on the new media, there is no compelling reason for consumers to migrate over to the new high definition DVD formats in large numbers.
4. Studios are Conservative, Greedy and Unmotivated
Studios are so conservative in their practices as to consistently miss out on market advances – even those that can make them money (ie. Why is a computer company running the world’s most successful online music store?) The studios are not jumping on board the high definition DVD bandwagon just yet – and you can see the lack of titles to prove it. If the movie studios decided that HD DVD or Blu-ray (or both) was to be the next dominant format, it need only to flood the market with software titles and present a plan to roll back on DVD production over the next 10 years. Even though this would grant them the secure format that they seem to want (HD DVDs and Blu-ray discs promise to be much harder to rip or duplicate) there is no indication in the industry that this is taking place or even in the works. The studios are making money hand over fist with DVD they cannot seem to bring themselves to seriously initiate a new, unproven technology – even if it saves them from some other copyright headaches.

Add to this the fact that new titles are coming out at $30 a pop (and this down from an initial $35/title) and you have a really hard sell for consumers who are used to $15 titles at Wal-mart and the large electronics chains.
5. Playstation3 Cannot Save the World
We have consistently heard it said that the Playstation3 will “jump start” the market by flooding it with millions of gaming systems capable of handling Blu-ray Disc software. The problem with this theory is that the PS3 is not being marketed as a home theater component and, if current installations prove the rule, most will not be situated in the average consumer’s living room. The result is that the PS3 will primarily be a *gasp* gaming system. Maybe I have a more traditional group of parents in my association of friends, but, taking into account #4 above, I do not think that Blu-ray will make any major leaps forward in market penetration as a home video format – at least not anytime soon.

History is bearing this out, as the HTPC market, though driven hard by such manufacturers as Microsoft, Dell and HP, has struggled to find a place in the living room. Nearly every gaming system of the past: PS2, Xbox, and even the legendary 3DO system have been touted as “set-top boxes” but in reality find themselves situated in more “gaming-centric” environments playing… you guessed it, games.
6. Those Who Ignore History…
For years we’ve heard about the evils of MP3 and illegal downloading. All the while the RIAA and music industry had two formats that could have prevented any illegal copying – at least for all but the most dedicated crackers: DVD-Audio and SACD. These formats proved to be higher quality than CD, presented much enhanced copy protection schemes and were easily used as alternative formats to CD. Yet both formats failed miserably to achieve any significant market penetration. Why? Without an artificial “shove” from the record industry – which never materialized – technology alone is never enough to push a new format into the hands of consumers. In terms of convenience and ease of use, DVD-Audio and SACD offered nothing to consumers. In fact, they made listening to music more complex, since most hardware was unable to correctly decode and provide adequate bass management for the new formats.

Could these formats have succeeded? Absolutely. If the recording industry had presented a plan to phase out CDs and the “format war” had been avoided (simply by the industry picking one format over the other) we would all be using DVD-Audio players and illegal downloadable music would be mostly confined to analogue rips or older music. Is this a stretch? Perhaps, but only because history shows us that corporate greed causes most companies to miss the long term economical gains over a short term loss of licensing revenues.
7. People Want Technology that’s 15 Minutes Ahead of Its Time
For many people, getting into HDTV is all about the widescreen and being able to see their DVDs with more clarity than ever before. When Billy Bob comes home with his new high definition 720p display, the difference between that and his older SD TV is amazing – at least when he’s watching DVDs. You see, that’s the problem – and it’s two-fold. While most consumers are still getting into the HDTV craze, they’re already impressed. And the difference between SD TV and HDTV is more amazing than the difference between 480p DVDs and 1080i downrezzed high definition discs.

The other side of the coin is the lack of HD content available on TV – and this is a biggie. While Billy Bob is impressed by his DVD player, he is dumbfounded by his cable TV – which actually looks worse than it did on his old set (mostly because it’s bigger). You see, nobody told Billy Bob that he’d have to get an antenna or subscribe to HD service from his cable/satellite provider. He was also not told that most of his favorite shows (Billy likes sitcoms and the Sci-Fi Channel) aren’t yet available in HD, regardless of technology or service provider. As a result, many Americans are underwhelmed or feel like they got burned by HDTV. The last thing they’re going to do is rush out and buy the next greatest thing.
8. Enthusiasts Are Getting Tired (and Smarter)
While some home theater audio- and videophiles have the money and inclination to rush out and buy the latest and greatest toys as soon as they are available, many more are becoming more cautious. Burned by 8-track, laserdisc, SACD, and DVD-Audio (and possibly soon non-HDCP HDTV) – these war-weary consumers are going to think long and hard before jumping onto any new technological bandwagons. This leaves a shrunken market of even the bleeding-edge consumers, and that means even less sales to early-adopters.

9. A Skeptical News Media Doesn’t Help
I’ll admit it, we’re part of the “problem” (though I’d like to think we’re saving consumers from making the next big mistake). An increasingly skeptical news media isn’t buying into the hype of HD DVD and Blu-ray, especially not after wasting millions of editorial words on DVD-Audio and SACD, only to watch the software and technology dwindle into obscurity. Even after almost 6 years, most consumers continue to proffer puzzled looks when these audio formats are mentioned. The new DVD formats are getting plenty of press, mind you, but with the Toshiba flop and lack of software, the fact that the Emperor has no clothes (at least not yet) is hard to avoid.

10. Broadband and IPTV to Compete?
With Verizon, AOL, Time Warner and others jumping to provide HD on-demand services for the consumer it is a very likely event that high definition DVD will be something that isn’t relevant in a service-directed marketplace. Add to this Apple Computer’s recent push for video downloads and we may find that consumers are far more interested in quantity, portability, and ease of use over high quality source material. Even with respect to high definition formats, downloadable files burned to consumer-supplied media may make data high definition DVDs more significant than the retail formats. This consumer model is being readied for testing in South Carolina’s head-end for Time Warner Cable this year.

So, while I certainly hope for the best, that’s my story and I’m stickin’ to it. High definition is headed for a niche market at best, not an industry takeover.

By Clint DeBoer

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credit goes to dblbogey7 i got this off the link he provided.This is what i been saying all along there is NO WAR ! ! !

 

@DamonDash:
Thanks for giving me credit. Just to let you know, I posted the link to stir up some meaningful debate. It's also important to realize that although he does bring up some valid points, the whole article is just one man's opinion - one man's editorial. Obviously you agree with him.

I for one don't care if this war fizzles out or if one format wins. What I care about is that I can watch my favorite films in the best high def quality available not to mention the latest advanced audio codecs. We may become a minority niche market but it will be a great niche to be in. I'm sure eatsushi and a few others will agree.

Besides, if there is no war then mudearies will be very diasappointed. He wants his BluRay to win so much. LOL!

 

I agree with dblbogey7.

We both want our movies in high def no matter what discs they come in - BD, HD-DVD, or the future HVD - Holographic Versatile Disc capable of storing 100 GB to a mximum 3.9 terabytes of data per disc:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holographic_Versatile_Disc

That's an interesting editorial you posted. If you want a war try posting this part on the PS3 forums:

 

@ DamonDash,

Now thats the kind of posting I like to through bombs at

What false start? The first HD-DVD player doesn't support 1080p because most tvs don't support 1080p resolution (although 1080p@24fps can be turned on via a future firmware upgrade since it is supported in hardware, I'm sure of it). Lossless audio was supported on two titles; one launch title. HDMI 1.3 has nothing to do with the launch of HD-DVD or Blu-ray. All of the features that the player(s) supports can be used with-out HDMI 1.3.

Tell that to the creators of VHS (JVC).

What is this guy bableing about? He obviously has never used or seen HD-DVD or Blu-ray in action. The interactivity alone is worth replacing DVD.

These new formats are so advaced that 10 years from now we will still be seeing incredible pictures from these first titles because todays tvs arn't capable of reproducing all of the detail and color stored on the disc!

There is an excellent artical in WideScreen review this month that features Joe Kane (creater of Digital Video Essential) and the head of Micro$ofts VC-1 project. They explain all!

I have never supported the idea of people not appreciating quality. SACD and DVD-Audio are not examples of formats aimed at replacing a format. They are in a league all there own (and still are). SACD is alive and well in the homes of audio-philes and music studios that care about musical fidelity!

Anyway, history tells me that if something is good then it is good. DVD was not a national format when it debuted. The players cost more than HD-DVD players and available movies where not only limited in size they where also limited to certain locations! But in less than 5 years DVD was able to replace VHS as the major A/V format.

Did you know that Toshiba and Sony tried to have a similar format war back then two but a compromise was reached, the DVD format?

Now that is such a joke to me. The downloading/renters market won't replace the store market. Granted alot less movies will be bought in the future because of convienece (Netflix, MovieBeam, ect...). But for collectors and those that wish to reproduce movie theater quality in there home, downloading isn't an option, at least for now.

Plus movie theater quality will be different in 5 and then again in 10 years. Movie theaters are going digital and with that switch they are increasing the video resolution above filmes mathimatical limit and adding more speakers so that the studio master quality recording can be played back as intended!

For more info...

DCI:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Cinema_Initiatives

Just when you though 4K (4096 x 2160 @ 24fps) was state of the art...
http://www.tgdaily.com/2006/06/15/cinevision2066_demonstration/

Ced

 

I just knew that Ced would take the first swing at this article!

Thanks for your input Ced!

 

' ' ROTFLMAO!

mudearies strikes again! ' '


dude dont mentuion my name or i will get banned.

if people werent such fanboys around here they would all go for blu-ray ,beacuase its supeior to hdvd in everyway. come on almost twice the data per layer ,come on new i say more ??? nuff said ,support blu-ray ot stick to crappy dvd's.

in my book this whole multi-dvd's movies this days are totally crap ,i want all in one disk.blu-ray winner.

 

ROTFLMAO!!!!!!

This guy really cracks me up!

Keep it coming mudearies!

 

lol seriously ,admin dont ban me im trying to str8 things up here. so it aint me. blu-ray for the win.

 

' ' ROTFLMAO!!!!!!

This guy really cracks me up!

Keep it coming mudearies! ' '

grrrrrrr can we get back to subject at hand here !!!!

blu-ray-25gb per layer.

hdvd-only 15gb per layer.

 

Good thing I got a full refund for my Samsung BDP1000. It seems BestBuy is making it more difficult for people to return their BluRay players:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=692243

 

Interesting stuff on current releases from amazon:

http://www.thedvdwars.com/index.cfm
http://www.amazon.com/gp/comparison...PTGK&ASIN.4=B000DZS0G8&ASIN.3=B000F99FDE&bf=0

mudearies:

If you really want to make a splash post your stuff on AVS Forums. There's a lot of BluRay bashing going on there - probably 100x what it is here. There's a few hundred HD-DVD "fanboys" out there that should hear your arguments.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/forumdisplay.php?f=151
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/forumdisplay.php?f=152
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/forumdisplay.php?f=149
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/forumdisplay.php?f=150

Go get em buddy - don't let them trash BluRay!

 

Another spot-on comparison review:

http://www.dvdtown.com/article/toshibavs.samsung-hd-dvdvs.blu/3595/

 

The 6 channel PCM ratios for blu-ray movies have been confirmed! They are 16/48 (Bits/KHz) audio streams, not the 24/96 audio streams I was hoping for.

Ced

 

That's interesting info Ced. I didn't think of using the 5.1 analog outs when I auditioned the Samsung but I guessed it would not have made a difference. I don't have an HDMI input on my Rotel pre/proc so for now I'm using the digital coax out on the Toshiba with the DD+ soundtracks downconverted to plain DD. I guess when Dolby TruHD and DTS-HD become more commonplace I have to upgrade.

 

Samsung Fully Supports Blu-ray, Denies HD DVD Combo Reports

http://www.twice.com/article/CA6347971.html

I guess they're playing it safe and trying hard not to piss off Sony.

Ced:
Maybe if they get the BD50 working then they would have enough space for 24bit PCM.

 

The Toshiba only outputs DTS over Coax and Optical (for HD-DVDs). HDMI and the analog outs are both capable of sending a 6-8 Channel PCM (24/96) signal to a receiver.

Read this explination by Dolby...
http://www.dolby.com/consumer/technology/trueHD/avrs/trueHD_avrs_1.html

-----------

I hope so. In the words of [bold]Wilkes[/bold]; "WTF is enhanced about 16/48." I guess they don't think people will care that the uncompressed audio is only a baby step better than CD audio (16/44.1).

Ced

 

I thought the first HD-DVD discs had mostly DD Plus only. A few also had DTS and Dolby Tru-HD:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=665702

From this list it looks like only the BD's have PCM audio. Can Ced or dbblbogey confirm this?

 

All HD-DVD titles have DD+ because its mandatory. I didn't mean DD+ wasn't supported. The Toshiba player doesn't output it, meaning that everything is sent to its internal decoder and transcoded to PCM. Then other effects are added if necissary and everything is re-encoded to DTS at a high bitrate. Toshiba didn't have to use a DTS encoder but they opted to because they said that it was easier to implament and would have no negative effect on the customer.

-------

Yes, BD uses PCM for all there titles, thats why I've been making such a big deal about it. Unlike HD-DVD, DD+ isn't mandatory, only DD is required. DTS is an option. Dolby TrueHD and DTS-HD are options aswell be aren't support by the samsung player at all!

Refer to Dolby graphic on the 1st page for more info.

Ced

 

That makes it clearer now Ced - thanks. Also the first part of this thread explains a lot of the audio features in the Toshiba:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=640949

dblbogey7: Have you tried using the analog outs on the Toshiba?